Holiday

Holiday during last four months

We have been occupied by other matters and events during last four months and we regret for no publishing any posts in this blog. There were a lot of changes during this period especially for investors. Most of the investors were happy about the bullish of the shares markets as well as commodities markets.

We wish to share our happiness of the marriage of our daughter. The following are some of the photos that have been taken during her wedding.

Ten Rules to remember for share investors

Robert Bab Farrell, former Merrill Lynch chief market strategist, has fifty years of top Wall Street experience and insights, summaries the markets in ten commonsense simple rules for us to remember when investing.

1. Markets tend to return to the mean over time.
2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.
3. There are no new eras - excesses are never permanent.
4. Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.
5. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom.
6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve.
7. Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue chips names.
8. Bear markets have three stages - sharp down; reflexive rebound; a drawn-out fundamental downtrend.
9. When all the experts and forecasts agree - something else is going to happen.
10. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets.

The End of Food by Paul Roberts

In the book, Roberts says one of the main roots of the wider food crisis is the way a unified farming process was broken down into discrete components so that they could each be industrialised, from the development and production of seeds and the mechanisation of planting and harvesting through to factory-scale food processing.
These changes have lead to a system where each individual step in the process takes no account of the wider costs imposed on the rest of society.
In addition, there is an ongoing concern about climate change. Not only does this system generate enormous greenhouse gas emissions. It is also dependant on huge quantities of water, something that is to become less secure as existing water sources are used up.
Roberts says, for example 'bird flu' is one of a number of bullets that could strike the modern food system . He also lists oil price rise, extreme weather, plant diseases and the loss of water supplies as other potential disasters awaiting us in this global Russian Roulette.
The title of this book - The end of food - means the collapse of this industrialised food system. It is this pessimism that runs to the heart of the book.

Jeremy Siegel and his investment books

Jeremy Siegel, a Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania has written a number of books on investment. The following two books are his research works on stocks.

Stocks for the Long Run (4Th edition): The definitive guide to financial market returns and long term investment strategies

This book is the best summary of the historical data on investing in US (with some comparison to other financial markets as well). The main topics are:
1. The Verdict of History;
2. Stocks Returns;
3. Economic Environment of Investing;
4. Stock Fluctuations in the Short Run;
5. Building Wealth Through Stocks.

Another book is

The Future for Investors: Why the tried and the true triumph over the bold and the new

This book cover five parts:
First two parts focus on analysis of historic data using very unique perspective, mostly with respect to changing membership of SP500 index over the years.
In the Third and Fourth parts, he discusses the different measures to consider while analysing a company's performance from the shareholders' points of view.
The Fifth part is the most useful for reader seeking investment advice. He provides a sample portfolio based on the principles he explains in the Third and Fourth parts of the book. In addition to percentage allocation for US and non-US(about 30-40%) markets, he provides allocation targets for some of the specific investment strategies he discusses in the book (centred around the dividend paid by the company).

The New Paradigm for Financial Markets

The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What It Means

This is a book written by George Soros. It was published in May 2008 before the severe financial crisis in Sept 2009. So George Soros became a successful prophet of the markets.

In his book, he offers some solutions, which centre on new regulation for markets and how to avoid forced sales for US homeowners. The theory he developed is based on 'the relationship between thinking and reality' - "Reflexivity". He says, participants' thinking plays a dual function: they try to understand the situation, and to change it. The two functions can interfere with each other, when they do so the markets displays 'reflexivity'.

Soros believes that a super bubble has been formed as the result of a "long-term reflexive process". Its hallmarks include credit expansion and a prevailing misconception. There have been numerous financial crisis in this period, and these served as successful tests which reinforced the prevailing trend and the prevailing misconception. Thus the current crisis grows in severity because it marks the turning point when both the trend and the misconception have become unsustainable.

Kristabel in Singapore

Futurecast by Robert J Shapiro

This book is written by Robert J Shapiro. He looks into the future to tell us what our world will over the next dozen years.
Shapiro foresees monumental changes caused by three historic new forces - Globalization, the Aging of societies and the rise of America as a sole superpower with no near peer - will determine the paths of nations and the lives of countless millions.
Rob Shapiro thinks we can expect
- US military hegemony will be a thing of the past while the new superpower rivalry will be between China and the US.
- Mexico and Turkey will produce most of the world's cars.
- The US will be the premiere source of products and services, but the economy will be hostage to foreign lenders for capital to develop these products.
- China will be able to offer less-developed countries a new model of political and economic success based on investment -led growth.
- Japan and Europe will move to the periphery of world power.
-Labour forces will contract and economic growth will be stymied, the vast number of retirees will create a financial crisis for government.
- Two wild cards : Terrorism & Technological Advancement have the potential to unpredictably alter the projected future outcome. Technological advancement includes nanotechnology, biotechnology and information technologies.